Madrid CFF (W) vs CD Alaves (W)

26 Sep 2026 · 18:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.3 pp

Madrid CFF (W)

CD Alaves (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 47.2% DRAW 26.6% AWAY 26.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 44.9% 2.12 DRAW 27.2% 3.50 AWAY 28.0% 3.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: CD Alaves (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Madrid CFF (W) CD Alaves (W)

Shots 8.5 · On target 4.0 Shots 10.5 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Madrid CFF (W) CD Alaves (W)

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 15.3 · On target allowed 6.0

Madrid CFF (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Madrid CFF (W) CD Alaves (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Madrid CFF (W) ↑ +0.25 (+13.4%)

CD Alaves (W) = (0.0%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.