Sevilla (W) vs Barcelona (W)

05 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.4 pp

Sevilla (W)

Barcelona (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 1.4% DRAW 5.3% AWAY 93.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 1.4% 70.00 DRAW 5.7% 17.00 AWAY 93.0% 1.04

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Barcelona (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sevilla (W) Barcelona (W)

Shots 12.5 · On target 4.8 Shots 19.5 · On target 9.3

Recent attacking output favours Barcelona (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sevilla (W) Barcelona (W)

Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 5.8 · On target allowed 2.8

Barcelona (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sevilla (W) Barcelona (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Barcelona (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Sevilla (W) ↓ -10.00 (-12.5%)

Barcelona (W) ↑ +0.02 (+1.5%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.