Biel Bienne vs Bavois

26 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.0 pp

Biel Bienne

Bavois

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 63.1% DRAW 19.8% AWAY 17.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 60.1% 1.56 DRAW 21.2% 4.41 AWAY 18.7% 5.01

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Biel Bienne relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 63.1% win probability, compared with 60.1% implied by the market. The 3.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Biel Bienne has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Biel Bienne Bavois

Shots 12.5 · On target 5.0 Shots 7.3 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours Biel Bienne, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Biel Bienne Bavois

Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 5.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Biel Bienne Bavois

The combined recent performance profile favours Biel Bienne.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Biel Bienne ↑ +0.01 (+0.4%)

Bavois ↑ +0.05 (+1.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.