Unia Swarzedz vs Lech Poznan II

04 Sep 2026 · 17:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.4 pp

Unia Swarzedz

Lech Poznan II

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 43.2% DRAW 22.2% AWAY 34.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 39.8% 2.38 DRAW 23.3% 4.07 AWAY 37.0% 2.56

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Unia Swarzedz relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 43.2% win probability, compared with 39.8% implied by the market. The 3.4 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Unia Swarzedz

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Unia Swarzedz Lech Poznan II

Shots 20.0 · On target 6.0 Shots 18.5 · On target 8.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Unia Swarzedz Lech Poznan II

Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 6.0 Shots allowed 17.8 · On target allowed 8.3

Unia Swarzedz has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Unia Swarzedz Lech Poznan II

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Unia Swarzedz ↑ +0.20 (+9.2%)

Lech Poznan II ↓ -0.19 (-6.9%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.