Locarno vs AC Taverne

12 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.0 pp

Locarno

AC Taverne

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 28.8% DRAW 24.9% AWAY 46.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 25.8% 3.62 DRAW 24.9% 3.75 AWAY 49.3% 1.89

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Locarno relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 28.8% win probability, compared with 25.8% implied by the market. The 3.0 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Locarno has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Locarno AC Taverne

Shots 14.3 · On target 5.5 Shots 12.8 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Locarno AC Taverne

Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 6.3

Locarno has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Locarno AC Taverne

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Locarno ↓ -0.28 (-7.2%)

AC Taverne ↑ +0.24 (+14.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.