Xerez CD vs CD Badajoz

13 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.3 pp

Xerez CD

CD Badajoz

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 39.7% DRAW 30.7% AWAY 29.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 42.6% 2.20 DRAW 30.2% 3.10 AWAY 27.2% 3.44

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

CD Badajoz has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Xerez CD CD Badajoz

Shots 11.3 · On target 3.3 Shots 14.0 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output favours CD Badajoz, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Xerez CD CD Badajoz

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 3.0

CD Badajoz has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Xerez CD CD Badajoz

The combined recent performance profile favours CD Badajoz.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Xerez CD ↑ +0.29 (+15.2%)

CD Badajoz ↓ -0.06 (-1.7%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.