Heidenheim vs Holstein Kiel

13 Sep 2026 · 13:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.2 pp

Heidenheim

Holstein Kiel

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 44.9% DRAW 24.0% AWAY 31.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 43.7% 2.24 DRAW 24.8% 3.95 AWAY 31.6% 3.10

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Mixed Performance

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Heidenheim Holstein Kiel

Shots 12.8 · On target 6.0 Shots 14.5 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Heidenheim Holstein Kiel

Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 5.3 Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Heidenheim Holstein Kiel

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Heidenheim ↑ +0.26 (+13.1%)

Holstein Kiel ↓ -0.50 (-13.9%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.