Holstein Kiel vs Nurnberg

05 Sep 2026 · 13:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.0 pp

Holstein Kiel

Nurnberg

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 43.3% DRAW 25.0% AWAY 31.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 42.3% 2.30 DRAW 25.6% 3.79 AWAY 32.1% 3.03

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Nurnberg

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Holstein Kiel Nurnberg

Shots 13.3 · On target 4.3 Shots 10.8 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Holstein Kiel Nurnberg

Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 10.8 · On target allowed 3.8

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Holstein Kiel Nurnberg

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Holstein Kiel ↓ -0.16 (-6.5%)

Nurnberg ↑ +0.28 (+10.2%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.