Arminia Bielefeld vs St Pauli

04 Sep 2026 · 18:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.2 pp

Arminia Bielefeld

St Pauli

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 42.1% DRAW 25.4% AWAY 32.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 40.9% 2.35 DRAW 26.0% 3.70 AWAY 33.1% 2.90

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.2 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: St Pauli

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Arminia Bielefeld St Pauli

Shots 11.8 · On target 4.8 Shots 14.3 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output favours St Pauli, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Arminia Bielefeld St Pauli

Shots allowed 12.3 · On target allowed 4.8 Shots allowed 15.5 · On target allowed 6.3

Arminia Bielefeld has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Arminia Bielefeld St Pauli

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Arminia Bielefeld ↑ +0.05 (+2.2%)

St Pauli ↑ +0.03 (+1.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.