Zabkovia Zabki vs Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

11 Sep 2026 · 16:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.2 pp

Zabkovia Zabki

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 48.6% DRAW 23.0% AWAY 28.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 45.4% 2.08 DRAW 24.1% 3.92 AWAY 30.5% 3.10

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Zabkovia Zabki relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 48.6% win probability, compared with 45.4% implied by the market. The 3.2 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Zabkovia Zabki has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Zabkovia Zabki Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Shots 19.8 · On target 6.3 Shots 13.5 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Zabkovia Zabki Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

Shots allowed 15.5 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 15.8 · On target allowed 5.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Zabkovia Zabki Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Zabkovia Zabki ↓ -0.17 (-7.6%)

Lechia Tomaszow Mazowiecki ↑ +0.35 (+12.5%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.