Paris 13 Atletico vs SC Bastia

26 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.4 pp

Paris 13 Atletico

SC Bastia

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 38.0% DRAW 30.2% AWAY 31.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 37.5% 2.55 DRAW 30.0% 3.19 AWAY 32.5% 2.95

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: SC Bastia

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Paris 13 Atletico SC Bastia

Shots 5.3 · On target 2.3 Shots 5.8 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Paris 13 Atletico SC Bastia

Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 2.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Paris 13 Atletico SC Bastia

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Paris 13 Atletico ↓ -0.34 (-11.8%)

SC Bastia ↑ +0.48 (+19.4%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.