Baglan Dragons vs Carmarthen

25 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.0 pp

Baglan Dragons

Carmarthen

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 33.8% DRAW 24.2% AWAY 42.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 35.0% 2.64 DRAW 25.0% 3.70 AWAY 40.0% 2.31

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Carmarthen

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Baglan Dragons Carmarthen

Shots 6.0 · On target 2.3 Shots 11.8 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output favours Carmarthen, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Baglan Dragons Carmarthen

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 5.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Baglan Dragons Carmarthen

The combined recent performance profile favours Carmarthen.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Baglan Dragons ↓ -0.24 (-8.2%)

Carmarthen ↑ +0.31 (+15.5%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.