Caerphilly Athletic vs Pontypridd Utd

25 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.8 pp

Caerphilly Athletic

Pontypridd Utd

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 36.3% DRAW 24.1% AWAY 39.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 35.5% 2.58 DRAW 24.8% 3.69 AWAY 39.7% 2.31

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Pontypridd Utd

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Caerphilly Athletic Pontypridd Utd

Shots 9.3 · On target 5.5 Shots 12.5 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Caerphilly Athletic Pontypridd Utd

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 5.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Caerphilly Athletic Pontypridd Utd

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Caerphilly Athletic ↑ +0.08 (+3.2%)

Pontypridd Utd ↑ +0.01 (+0.4%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.