Afan Lido vs Newport City FC

25 Sep 2026 · 20:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +4.3 pp

Afan Lido

Newport City FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 32.9% DRAW 23.1% AWAY 44.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 36.1% 2.55 DRAW 24.1% 3.82 AWAY 39.7% 2.32

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Newport City FC clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 44.0% win probability, compared with 39.7% implied by the market. The 4.3 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Newport City FC

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Afan Lido Newport City FC

Shots 11.3 · On target 3.8 Shots 10.5 · On target 5.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Afan Lido Newport City FC

Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 6.3 Shots allowed 3.8 · On target allowed 2.0

Newport City FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Afan Lido Newport City FC

The combined recent performance profile favours Newport City FC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Afan Lido ↓ -0.33 (-11.3%)

Newport City FC ↑ +0.32 (+16.0%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.