Portimonense vs Tondela

12 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.0 pp

Portimonense

Tondela

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 30.4% DRAW 29.3% AWAY 40.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 31.4% 3.07 DRAW 29.3% 3.29 AWAY 39.3% 2.45

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Tondela has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Portimonense Tondela

Shots 10.8 · On target 4.0 Shots 13.5 · On target 4.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Portimonense Tondela

Shots allowed 9.8 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 2.8

Tondela has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Portimonense Tondela

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Portimonense ↑ +0.09 (+3.0%)

Tondela ↑ +0.17 (+7.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.