Benfica vs Gil Vicente

13 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.4 pp

Benfica

Gil Vicente

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 87.0% DRAW 8.6% AWAY 4.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 85.6% 1.14 DRAW 9.8% 9.96 AWAY 4.6% 21.00

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Benfica has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Benfica Gil Vicente

Shots 19.0 · On target 7.5 Shots 15.8 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output favours Benfica, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Benfica Gil Vicente

Shots allowed 6.5 · On target allowed 1.3 Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 1.8

Benfica has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Benfica Gil Vicente

The combined recent performance profile favours Benfica.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Benfica ↓ -0.02 (-1.7%)

Gil Vicente ↑ +1.50 (+7.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.