Rio Ave vs Estrela

14 Sep 2026 · 19:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.4 pp

Rio Ave

Estrela

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 31.6% DRAW 29.4% AWAY 39.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 34.9% 2.80 DRAW 29.5% 3.31 AWAY 35.6% 2.74

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Estrela relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 39.0% win probability, compared with 35.6% implied by the market. The 3.4 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Estrela has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Rio Ave Estrela

Shots 7.8 · On target 2.0 Shots 11.5 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours Estrela, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Rio Ave Estrela

Shots allowed 16.0 · On target allowed 6.5 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 4.3

Estrela has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Rio Ave Estrela

The combined recent performance profile favours Estrela.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Rio Ave ↓ -0.02 (-0.9%)

Estrela ↑ +0.12 (+4.5%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.