Moreirense vs Maritimo

14 Sep 2026 · 21:15

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.0 pp

Moreirense

Maritimo

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 31.2% DRAW 30.8% AWAY 38.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 33.4% 2.92 DRAW 30.7% 3.18 AWAY 36.0% 2.71

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.0 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Maritimo has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Moreirense Maritimo

Shots 6.5 · On target 2.0 Shots 8.8 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours Maritimo, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Moreirense Maritimo

Shots allowed 19.8 · On target allowed 6.8 Shots allowed 13.8 · On target allowed 6.3

Maritimo has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Moreirense Maritimo

The combined recent performance profile favours Maritimo.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Moreirense ↑ +0.12 (+4.4%)

Maritimo ↓ -0.06 (-2.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.