Famalicao vs Sporting

13 Sep 2026 · 21:30

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.1 pp

Famalicao

Sporting

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 15.4% DRAW 21.5% AWAY 63.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 15.8% 6.15 DRAW 22.1% 4.42 AWAY 62.1% 1.57

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.1 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Sporting has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Famalicao Sporting

Shots 12.0 · On target 3.3 Shots 13.5 · On target 6.3

Recent attacking output favours Sporting, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Famalicao Sporting

Shots allowed 10.0 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 2.0

Sporting has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Famalicao Sporting

The combined recent performance profile favours Sporting.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Famalicao ↑ +0.65 (+11.8%)

Sporting ↓ -0.09 (-5.6%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.