Arouca vs Santa Clara

13 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.5 pp

Arouca

Santa Clara

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 33.3% DRAW 31.9% AWAY 34.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 36.2% 2.69 DRAW 31.5% 3.10 AWAY 32.3% 3.02

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Santa Clara

The away side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Arouca Santa Clara

Shots 11.3 · On target 3.8 Shots 12.0 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Arouca Santa Clara

Shots allowed 15.0 · On target allowed 6.5 Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 2.5

Santa Clara has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Arouca Santa Clara

The combined recent performance profile favours Santa Clara.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Arouca ↓ -0.16 (-5.4%)

Santa Clara ↑ +0.29 (+10.4%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.