Deportivo Fabril vs Ponferradina

13 Sep 2026 · 16:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.4 pp

Deportivo Fabril

Ponferradina

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 34.3% DRAW 31.8% AWAY 33.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 31.9% 3.00 DRAW 31.3% 3.06 AWAY 36.8% 2.60

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.4 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Deportivo Fabril

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Deportivo Fabril Ponferradina

Shots 13.3 · On target 4.0 Shots 8.3 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours Deportivo Fabril, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Deportivo Fabril Ponferradina

Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 8.3 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Deportivo Fabril Ponferradina

The combined recent performance profile favours Deportivo Fabril.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Deportivo Fabril ↓ -0.20 (-6.3%)

Ponferradina ↑ +0.40 (+18.2%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.