Lugo vs CD Coria

13 Sep 2026 · 18:15

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.9 pp

Lugo

CD Coria

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 49.9% DRAW 29.7% AWAY 20.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 49.0% 1.93 DRAW 29.6% 3.20 AWAY 21.3% 4.45

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.9 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Lugo

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Lugo CD Coria

Shots 11.3 · On target 4.0 Shots 10.8 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Lugo CD Coria

Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 2.0 Shots allowed 10.5 · On target allowed 3.8

Lugo has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Lugo CD Coria

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Lugo ↓ -0.13 (-6.1%)

CD Coria ↑ +0.95 (+27.1%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.