TSV Grafenstein vs Nussdorf

04 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.8 pp

TSV Grafenstein

Nussdorf

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 81.2% DRAW 12.3% AWAY 6.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 77.5% 1.22 DRAW 14.5% 6.55 AWAY 8.1% 11.70

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for TSV Grafenstein relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 81.2% win probability, compared with 77.5% implied by the market. The 3.8 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: TSV Grafenstein

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

TSV Grafenstein Nussdorf

Shots 16.8 · On target 7.5 Shots 3.3 · On target 0.8

Recent attacking output favours TSV Grafenstein, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

TSV Grafenstein Nussdorf

Shots allowed 7.3 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 4.8 · On target allowed 3.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

TSV Grafenstein Nussdorf

The combined recent performance profile favours TSV Grafenstein.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

TSV Grafenstein ↓ -0.08 (-6.0%)

Nussdorf ↑ +5.20 (+80.0%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.