ATSV Salzburg vs UFV Thalgau

13 Sep 2026 · 14:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.3 pp

ATSV Salzburg

UFV Thalgau

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 33.1% DRAW 21.1% AWAY 45.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 29.9% 3.07 DRAW 21.8% 4.20 AWAY 48.3% 1.90

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for ATSV Salzburg relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 33.1% win probability, compared with 29.9% implied by the market. The 3.3 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: UFV Thalgau

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

ATSV Salzburg UFV Thalgau

Shots 0.3 · On target 0.3 Shots 5.3 · On target 2.0

Recent attacking output favours UFV Thalgau, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

ATSV Salzburg UFV Thalgau

Shots allowed 4.0 · On target allowed 2.3 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 6.0

ATSV Salzburg has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

ATSV Salzburg UFV Thalgau

The combined recent performance profile favours UFV Thalgau.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

ATSV Salzburg ↑ +0.14 (+4.8%)

UFV Thalgau ↓ -0.06 (-3.1%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.