Matsumoto Y FC vs Shonan Bellmare

09 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +5.3 pp

Matsumoto Y FC

Shonan Bellmare

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 37.9% DRAW 28.2% AWAY 33.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 32.5% 2.89 DRAW 28.2% 3.34 AWAY 39.2% 2.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Matsumoto Y FC clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 37.9% win probability, compared with 32.5% implied by the market. The 5.3 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Matsumoto Y FC has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Matsumoto Y FC Shonan Bellmare

Shots 12.8 · On target 4.0 Shots 5.0 · On target 1.5

Recent attacking output favours Matsumoto Y FC, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Matsumoto Y FC Shonan Bellmare

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 6.0

Matsumoto Y FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Matsumoto Y FC Shonan Bellmare

The combined recent performance profile favours Matsumoto Y FC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Matsumoto Y FC ↓ -0.61 (-17.3%)

Shonan Bellmare ↑ +0.45 (+23.1%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.