Tochigi SC vs Montedio Yamagata

09 Sep 2026 · 12:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.6 pp

Tochigi SC

Montedio Yamagata

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 37.3% DRAW 28.3% AWAY 34.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 34.7% 2.72 DRAW 28.4% 3.32 AWAY 37.0% 2.55

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Tochigi SC relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 37.3% win probability, compared with 34.7% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Defensive Edge: Tochigi SC

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Tochigi SC Montedio Yamagata

Shots 11.3 · On target 4.5 Shots 10.8 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Tochigi SC Montedio Yamagata

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.3 Shots allowed 14.0 · On target allowed 5.5

Tochigi SC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Tochigi SC Montedio Yamagata

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Tochigi SC ↑ +0.10 (+3.6%)

Montedio Yamagata ↑ +0.15 (+6.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.