Reilac Shiga vs Tokyo Verdy

09 Sep 2026 · 11:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.9 pp

Reilac Shiga

Tokyo Verdy

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 20.7% DRAW 23.4% AWAY 55.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 17.8% 5.32 DRAW 22.8% 4.15 AWAY 59.4% 1.60

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Reilac Shiga relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 20.7% win probability, compared with 17.8% implied by the market. The 2.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Reilac Shiga has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Reilac Shiga Tokyo Verdy

Shots 9.8 · On target 5.0 Shots 9.5 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours Reilac Shiga, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Reilac Shiga Tokyo Verdy

Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 16.0 · On target allowed 4.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Reilac Shiga Tokyo Verdy

The combined recent performance profile favours Reilac Shiga.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Reilac Shiga ↓ -0.43 (-7.5%)

Tokyo Verdy ↑ +0.16 (+10.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.