Sparta Prague vs FK Jablonec

12 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.7 pp

Sparta Prague

FK Jablonec

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 63.1% DRAW 21.0% AWAY 15.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 60.4% 1.58 DRAW 22.2% 4.30 AWAY 17.4% 5.50

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Sparta Prague relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 63.1% win probability, compared with 60.4% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Sparta Prague

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sparta Prague FK Jablonec

Shots 17.5 · On target 8.0 Shots 12.5 · On target 4.8

Recent attacking output favours Sparta Prague, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sparta Prague FK Jablonec

Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 3.5

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sparta Prague FK Jablonec

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Sparta Prague ↑ +0.09 (+6.3%)

FK Jablonec ↓ -0.44 (-7.4%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.