Bogota FC vs Barranquilla FC

21 Sep 2026 · 22:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.7 pp

Bogota FC

Barranquilla FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 56.3% DRAW 24.5% AWAY 19.2%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 53.7% 1.75 DRAW 25.4% 3.70 AWAY 21.0% 4.48

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Bogota FC relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 56.3% win probability, compared with 53.7% implied by the market. The 2.7 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Bogota FC has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Bogota FC Barranquilla FC

Shots 11.3 · On target 2.8 Shots 8.5 · On target 1.3

Recent attacking output favours Bogota FC, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Bogota FC Barranquilla FC

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 4.0 Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 5.5

Bogota FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Bogota FC Barranquilla FC

The combined recent performance profile favours Bogota FC.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Bogota FC ↑ +0.05 (+2.9%)

Barranquilla FC ↓ -0.43 (-8.7%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.