Sampaio Correa RJ U20 vs Nova Iguacu U20

12 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.8 pp

Sampaio Correa RJ U20

Nova Iguacu U20

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 45.2% DRAW 28.0% AWAY 26.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 43.4% 2.22 DRAW 28.3% 3.40 AWAY 28.3% 3.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Sampaio Correa RJ U20

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Sampaio Correa RJ U20 Nova Iguacu U20

Shots 11.8 · On target 4.8 Shots 8.3 · On target 2.0

Recent attacking output favours Sampaio Correa RJ U20, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Sampaio Correa RJ U20 Nova Iguacu U20

Shots allowed 13.0 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Sampaio Correa RJ U20 Nova Iguacu U20

The combined recent performance profile favours Sampaio Correa RJ U20.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Sampaio Correa RJ U20 ↑ +0.55 (+32.9%)

Nova Iguacu U20 ↓ -1.10 (-24.4%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.