Chomutov vs FC Karlovy Vary

25 Sep 2026 · 18:30

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.3 pp

Chomutov

FC Karlovy Vary

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 58.9% DRAW 22.3% AWAY 18.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 54.6% 1.68 DRAW 23.8% 3.85 AWAY 21.6% 4.25

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Chomutov clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 58.9% win probability, compared with 54.6% implied by the market. The 4.3 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Chomutov has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Chomutov FC Karlovy Vary

Shots 19.3 · On target 8.0 Shots 11.3 · On target 6.0

Recent attacking output favours Chomutov, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Chomutov FC Karlovy Vary

Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 3.5

Chomutov has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Chomutov FC Karlovy Vary

The combined recent performance profile favours Chomutov.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Chomutov ↓ -0.12 (-6.7%)

FC Karlovy Vary ↑ +0.72 (+20.3%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.