CD Universitario vs UMECIT

27 Sep 2026 · 01:15

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.4 pp

CD Universitario

UMECIT

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.2% DRAW 31.4% AWAY 28.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 36.8% 2.55 DRAW 31.2% 3.00 AWAY 32.0% 2.93

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for CD Universitario relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 40.2% win probability, compared with 36.8% implied by the market. The 3.4 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: CD Universitario

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

CD Universitario UMECIT

Shots 13.8 · On target 5.8 Shots 6.3 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours CD Universitario, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

CD Universitario UMECIT

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.3 Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 4.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

CD Universitario UMECIT

The combined recent performance profile favours CD Universitario.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away weakening

CD Universitario = (0.0%)

UMECIT ↑ +0.79 (+36.7%)

The away price has moved clearly higher, while the home price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.