TSV Havelse vs SC Fortuna Köln

25 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.9 pp

TSV Havelse

SC Fortuna Köln

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 40.8% DRAW 25.6% AWAY 33.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 36.9% 2.58 DRAW 26.2% 3.64 AWAY 36.9% 2.58

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for TSV Havelse relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 40.8% win probability, compared with 36.9% implied by the market. The 3.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: SC Fortuna Köln

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

TSV Havelse SC Fortuna Köln

Shots 4.8 · On target 2.3 Shots 7.8 · On target 3.0

Recent attacking output favours SC Fortuna Köln, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

TSV Havelse SC Fortuna Köln

Shots allowed 8.8 · On target allowed 3.5 Shots allowed 17.8 · On target allowed 7.0

TSV Havelse has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

TSV Havelse SC Fortuna Köln

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

TSV Havelse ↓ -0.34 (-11.6%)

SC Fortuna Köln ↑ +0.28 (+12.2%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.