MSV Duisburg vs TSV Havelse

15 Sep 2026 · 19:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.5 pp

MSV Duisburg

TSV Havelse

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 76.5% DRAW 15.2% AWAY 8.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 74.0% 1.31 DRAW 16.7% 5.80 AWAY 9.3% 10.37

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for MSV Duisburg relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 76.5% win probability, compared with 74.0% implied by the market. The 2.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

MSV Duisburg has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

MSV Duisburg TSV Havelse

Shots 9.0 · On target 5.3 Shots 4.8 · On target 2.3

Recent attacking output favours MSV Duisburg, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

MSV Duisburg TSV Havelse

Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 11.3 · On target allowed 4.0

MSV Duisburg has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

MSV Duisburg TSV Havelse

The combined recent performance profile favours MSV Duisburg.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

MSV Duisburg ↑ +0.04 (+3.1%)

TSV Havelse ↑ +0.92 (+9.7%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.