Strasbourg (W) vs Saint Malo (W)

05 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.5 pp

Strasbourg (W)

Saint Malo (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 48.5% DRAW 26.4% AWAY 25.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 45.9% 2.00 DRAW 27.0% 3.40 AWAY 27.0% 3.40

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Strasbourg (W) relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 48.5% win probability, compared with 45.9% implied by the market. The 2.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Strasbourg (W)

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Strasbourg (W) Saint Malo (W)

Shots 11.0 · On target 5.0 Shots 5.5 · On target 2.0

Recent attacking output favours Strasbourg (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Strasbourg (W) Saint Malo (W)

Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 3.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Strasbourg (W) Saint Malo (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Strasbourg (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home weakening

Strasbourg (W) ↑ +0.17 (+9.1%)

Saint Malo (W) ↓ -0.10 (-2.9%)

The home price has moved clearly higher, while the away price has remained broadly stable.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.