Marseille (W) vs Le Havre (W)

05 Sep 2026 · 21:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.3 pp

Marseille (W)

Le Havre (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 57.0% DRAW 23.7% AWAY 19.3%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 56.6% 1.67 DRAW 24.2% 3.90 AWAY 19.2% 4.92

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Le Havre (W)

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Marseille (W) Le Havre (W)

Shots 9.0 · On target 2.3 Shots 11.5 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Le Havre (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Marseille (W) Le Havre (W)

Shots allowed 12.0 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 11.8 · On target allowed 6.3

Marseille (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Marseille (W) Le Havre (W)

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Marseille (W) ↓ -0.35 (-17.5%)

Le Havre (W) ↑ +1.42 (+40.6%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.