Montpellier (W) vs Toulouse (W)

05 Sep 2026 · 18:00

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE AWAY +4.9 pp

Montpellier (W)

Toulouse (W)

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 32.5% DRAW 26.6% AWAY 41.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 36.8% 2.50 DRAW 27.1% 3.40 AWAY 36.1% 2.55

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Toulouse (W) clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 41.0% win probability, compared with 36.1% implied by the market. The 4.9 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Toulouse (W) has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Montpellier (W) Toulouse (W)

Shots 6.8 · On target 3.5 Shots 12.5 · On target 5.0

Recent attacking output favours Toulouse (W), combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Montpellier (W) Toulouse (W)

Shots allowed 16.5 · On target allowed 7.0 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.5

Toulouse (W) has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Montpellier (W) Toulouse (W)

The combined recent performance profile favours Toulouse (W).

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Montpellier (W) ↑ +0.13 (+5.3%)

Toulouse (W) ↑ +0.05 (+2.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.