Ebbsfleet United vs Hemel Hempstead

08 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.6 pp

Ebbsfleet United

Hemel Hempstead

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 52.4% DRAW 25.5% AWAY 22.1%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 49.8% 1.90 DRAW 26.3% 3.60 AWAY 23.9% 3.95

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Ebbsfleet United relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 52.4% win probability, compared with 49.8% implied by the market. The 2.6 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Ebbsfleet United has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Ebbsfleet United Hemel Hempstead

Shots 9.5 · On target 4.0 Shots 8.3 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours Ebbsfleet United, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Ebbsfleet United Hemel Hempstead

Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 9.0 · On target allowed 4.5

Ebbsfleet United has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Ebbsfleet United Hemel Hempstead

The combined recent performance profile favours Ebbsfleet United.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Ebbsfleet United ↑ +0.09 (+5.0%)

Hemel Hempstead ↑ +0.19 (+4.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.