Dorking Wanderers vs Chelmsford

08 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.3 pp

Dorking Wanderers

Chelmsford

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 51.3% DRAW 22.8% AWAY 25.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 48.0% 2.00 DRAW 24.0% 4.00 AWAY 28.1% 3.42

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Dorking Wanderers relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 51.3% win probability, compared with 48.0% implied by the market. The 3.3 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Dorking Wanderers has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Dorking Wanderers Chelmsford

Shots 11.5 · On target 4.8 Shots 9.8 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output favours Dorking Wanderers, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Dorking Wanderers Chelmsford

Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 12.8 · On target allowed 6.0

Dorking Wanderers has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Dorking Wanderers Chelmsford

The combined recent performance profile favours Dorking Wanderers.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Dorking Wanderers ↓ -0.17 (-7.8%)

Chelmsford ↑ +0.57 (+19.9%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.