Dag & Red vs Dover

08 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.4 pp

Dag & Red

Dover

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 73.6% DRAW 16.7% AWAY 9.7%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 70.3% 1.36 DRAW 18.4% 5.18 AWAY 11.3% 8.46

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Dag & Red relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 73.6% win probability, compared with 70.3% implied by the market. The 3.4 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Dover

The home side shows the stronger recent defensive profile, while the attacking comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Dag & Red Dover

Shots 8.0 · On target 3.8 Shots 9.0 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Dag & Red Dover

Shots allowed 6.3 · On target allowed 2.8 Shots allowed 17.3 · On target allowed 6.8

Dag & Red has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Dag & Red Dover

The combined recent performance profile favours Dag & Red.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Dag & Red ↓ -0.13 (-8.7%)

Dover ↑ +3.03 (+55.8%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.