Southport vs Morecambe

08 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.3 pp

Southport

Morecambe

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 24.0% DRAW 29.2% AWAY 46.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 24.4% 3.92 DRAW 29.0% 3.30 AWAY 46.5% 2.06

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.3 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Morecambe

Recent attacking and defensive numbers do not show a clear overall edge.

Attack Recent attacking output

Southport Morecambe

Shots 7.5 · On target 2.3 Shots 8.8 · On target 4.0

Recent attacking output favours Morecambe, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Southport Morecambe

Shots allowed 8.0 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 2.5

Morecambe has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Southport Morecambe

The combined recent performance profile favours Morecambe.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Southport ↑ +1.02 (+35.2%)

Morecambe ↓ -0.14 (-6.4%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.