Harborough Town vs Hereford FC

08 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +3.5 pp

Harborough Town

Hereford FC

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 51.2% DRAW 24.0% AWAY 24.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 47.6% 1.97 DRAW 25.1% 3.74 AWAY 27.3% 3.44

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Harborough Town relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 51.2% win probability, compared with 47.6% implied by the market. The 3.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Harborough Town

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Harborough Town Hereford FC

Shots 15.5 · On target 5.5 Shots 6.5 · On target 2.8

Recent attacking output favours Harborough Town, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Harborough Town Hereford FC

Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 3.8 Shots allowed 7.0 · On target allowed 3.0

Hereford FC has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Harborough Town Hereford FC

The combined recent performance profile favours Harborough Town.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Harborough Town ↓ -0.08 (-3.9%)

Hereford FC ↑ +0.37 (+11.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.