Chester vs Merthyr Town

08 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +0.8 pp

Chester

Merthyr Town

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 58.2% DRAW 20.3% AWAY 21.5%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 58.2% 1.63 DRAW 21.1% 4.49 AWAY 20.6% 4.60

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 0.8 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Merthyr Town

The away side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Chester Merthyr Town

Shots 11.8 · On target 3.5 Shots 15.3 · On target 5.5

Recent attacking output favours Merthyr Town, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Chester Merthyr Town

Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 3.0 Shots allowed 9.3 · On target allowed 4.5

Chester has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Chester Merthyr Town

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Chester ↑ +0.05 (+3.2%)

Merthyr Town ↓ -0.16 (-3.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.