Buxton vs Brackley

08 Sep 2026 · 20:45

OPPORTUNITY

CLEAR EDGE HOME +4.0 pp

Buxton

Brackley

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 60.7% DRAW 19.7% AWAY 19.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 56.7% 1.68 DRAW 21.4% 4.46 AWAY 21.9% 4.34

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet rates Buxton clearly higher than the market does.

Our calibrated model estimates a 60.7% win probability, compared with 56.7% implied by the market. The 4.0 percentage-point difference indicates a clear divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Buxton has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Buxton Brackley

Shots 10.3 · On target 6.0 Shots 8.0 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Buxton, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Buxton Brackley

Shots allowed 9.5 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 13.3 · On target allowed 6.3

Buxton has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Buxton Brackley

The combined recent performance profile favours Buxton.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

Buxton ↓ -0.21 (-11.1%)

Brackley ↑ +0.86 (+24.7%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.