AF Elbasani vs FK Egnatia

13 Sep 2026 · 18:30

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +2.9 pp

AF Elbasani

FK Egnatia

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 32.1% DRAW 29.9% AWAY 38.0%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 35.0% 2.64 DRAW 29.8% 3.10 AWAY 35.2% 2.63

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for FK Egnatia relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 38.0% win probability, compared with 35.2% implied by the market. The 2.9 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

FK Egnatia has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

AF Elbasani FK Egnatia

Shots 9.5 · On target 3.8 Shots 14.5 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output favours FK Egnatia, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

AF Elbasani FK Egnatia

Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 8.0 Shots allowed 11.0 · On target allowed 4.8

FK Egnatia has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

AF Elbasani FK Egnatia

The combined recent performance profile favours FK Egnatia.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Home strengthening

AF Elbasani ↓ -0.18 (-6.4%)

FK Egnatia ↑ +0.32 (+13.9%)

The home price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the home side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.