Tepatitlan FC vs Dorados

04 Sep 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.2 pp

Tepatitlan FC

Dorados

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 38.2% DRAW 27.1% AWAY 34.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 41.2% 2.31 DRAW 27.2% 3.50 AWAY 31.5% 3.02

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Dorados relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 34.8% win probability, compared with 31.5% implied by the market. The 3.2 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Dorados has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Tepatitlan FC Dorados

Shots 10.8 · On target 3.8 Shots 11.5 · On target 4.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Tepatitlan FC Dorados

Shots allowed 18.0 · On target allowed 9.0 Shots allowed 11.5 · On target allowed 5.5

Dorados has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Tepatitlan FC Dorados

The combined recent performance profile favours Dorados.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Away strengthening

Tepatitlan FC ↑ +0.35 (+17.8%)

Dorados ↓ -0.58 (-16.1%)

The away price has shortened, indicating stronger market support for the away side.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.