Venados FC vs Atletico Morelia

27 Sep 2026 · 01:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE AWAY +3.1 pp

Venados FC

Atletico Morelia

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 33.0% DRAW 25.2% AWAY 41.8%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 35.4% 2.70 DRAW 25.9% 3.70 AWAY 38.7% 2.47

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Atletico Morelia relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 41.8% win probability, compared with 38.7% implied by the market. The 3.1 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Atletico Morelia has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Venados FC Atletico Morelia

Shots 11.5 · On target 5.0 Shots 13.0 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Venados FC Atletico Morelia

Shots allowed 12.5 · On target allowed 5.0 Shots allowed 6.0 · On target allowed 2.0

Atletico Morelia has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Venados FC Atletico Morelia

The combined recent performance profile favours Atletico Morelia.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Venados FC ↑ +0.08 (+3.1%)

Atletico Morelia = (0.0%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.