Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Universidad Guadalajara

26 Sep 2026 · 20:00

OPPORTUNITY

SLIGHT EDGE HOME +2.5 pp

Cruz Azul Hidalgo

Universidad Guadalajara

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 39.9% DRAW 25.2% AWAY 34.9%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 37.4% 2.55 DRAW 25.8% 3.70 AWAY 36.8% 2.59

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet sees a slight edge for Cruz Azul Hidalgo relative to the market.

Our calibrated model estimates a 39.9% win probability, compared with 37.4% implied by the market. The 2.5 percentage-point difference suggests a modest divergence from current market expectations.

PERFORMANCE

Cruz Azul Hidalgo has the stronger recent profile

The home side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Cruz Azul Hidalgo Universidad Guadalajara

Shots 10.5 · On target 4.5 Shots 10.0 · On target 3.5

Recent attacking output is broadly balanced between the two teams.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Cruz Azul Hidalgo Universidad Guadalajara

Shots allowed 13.5 · On target allowed 5.8 Shots allowed 16.3 · On target allowed 6.0

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Cruz Azul Hidalgo Universidad Guadalajara

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Cruz Azul Hidalgo ↑ +0.14 (+5.8%)

Universidad Guadalajara ↓ -0.13 (-4.8%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.