Oaxaca vs Alacranes de Durango

11 Sep 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +2.5 pp

Oaxaca

Alacranes de Durango

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 33.9% DRAW 27.5% AWAY 38.6%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 36.1% 2.70 DRAW 27.8% 3.51 AWAY 36.1% 2.70

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 2.5 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Alacranes de Durango has the stronger recent profile

The away side has the stronger recent profile in both attack and defence.

Attack Recent attacking output

Oaxaca Alacranes de Durango

Shots 6.8 · On target 3.8 Shots 14.3 · On target 5.3

Recent attacking output favours Alacranes de Durango, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Oaxaca Alacranes de Durango

Shots allowed 8.5 · On target allowed 4.5 Shots allowed 7.8 · On target allowed 4.3

Recent defensive numbers are broadly balanced between the two teams.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Oaxaca Alacranes de Durango

The combined recent performance profile favours Alacranes de Durango.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Oaxaca ↑ +0.07 (+2.7%)

Alacranes de Durango ↑ +0.16 (+6.3%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.