Atletico Morelia vs Oaxaca

06 Sep 2026 · 03:00

OPPORTUNITY

NEAR MARKET +1.7 pp

Atletico Morelia

Oaxaca

STOCHASTIC PROBABILITY

HOME 62.6% DRAW 21.0% AWAY 16.4%

MARKET PROBABILITY

HOME 61.0% 1.57 DRAW 22.0% 4.35 AWAY 17.0% 5.62

MATCH INTELLIGENCE

StochasticBet and the market are broadly aligned.

The calibrated model remains close to current market expectations. The largest Home or Away difference is 1.7 percentage points, which does not indicate a meaningful pricing divergence.

PERFORMANCE

Attacking Edge: Atletico Morelia

The home side shows the stronger recent attacking profile, while the defensive comparison is less clear.

Attack Recent attacking output

Atletico Morelia Oaxaca

Shots 14.3 · On target 4.5 Shots 7.5 · On target 3.3

Recent attacking output favours Atletico Morelia, combining shots and shots on target.

Defence Recent defensive resistance

Atletico Morelia Oaxaca

Shots allowed 7.5 · On target allowed 2.5 Shots allowed 5.5 · On target allowed 1.5

Oaxaca has the stronger recent defensive profile, allowing fewer dangerous attempts.

Overall Performance Combined attack and defence

Atletico Morelia Oaxaca

The combined recent performance profile is relatively balanced.

Based on the teams' four most recent matches in the available data.

MARKET MOVEMENT

Market broadly stable

Atletico Morelia ↑ +0.10 (+6.9%)

Oaxaca ↓ -0.29 (-4.9%)

No substantial directional movement is visible in the stored odds trend.

Latest movement from the stored odds trend.